Matt Stafford and Jared Goff are playing on new teams for the upcoming 2021 NFL season.
Stafford is currently seen as a huge upgrade over Goff for the Los Angeles Rams but is this really the case?
The common perception is that Stafford is an elite quarterback that played on a bad team (Detroit Lions) and that Goff was an average player on an otherwise Super Bowl contending roster.
This Stafford acquisition by the Rams has been viewed as their missing piece (to win it all) for an organization that reached the big game in the 2018 season with Goff at the helm.
Stafford’s arm talent has long enamored spectators but does his physical tools match the performance of one of the best players at the position?
Is Goff just the game manager everyone tells us he is, a player that has been carried to success?
The data will reveal the answers to all these questions.
Statistical Comparison
Matt Stafford’s Yearly Positional Ranking:
- 2009 – Not Top 10 (DYAR: 33, DVOA: 33, ANY/A: 30, EPA/Play: 30, EPA+CPOE Composite: 33)
- 2010 – Injured
- 2011 – 9 (DYAR: 5, DVOA: 9, ANY/A: 7, EPA/Play: 12, EPA+CPOE Composite: 11)
- 2012 – Not Top 10 (DYAR: 6, DVOA: 12, ANY/A: 18, EPA/Play: 16, EPA+CPOE Composite: 19)
- 2013 – Not Top 10 (DYAR: 12, DVOA: 15, ANY/A: 10, EPA/Play: 16, EPA+CPOE Composite: 20)
- 2014 – Not Top 10 (DYAR: 15, DVOA: 20, ANY/A: 19, EPA/Play: 20, EPA+CPOE Composite: 27)
- 2015 – Not Top 10 (DYAR: 9, DVOA: 10, ANY/A: 17, EPA/Play: 19, EPA+CPOE Composite: 20)
- 2016 – 10 (DYAR: 9, DVOA: 14, ANY/A: 11, EPA/Play: 8, EPA+CPOE Composite: 9)
- 2017 – Not Top 10 (DYAR: 10, DVOA: 11, ANY/A: 8, EPA/Play: 14, EPA+CPOE Composite: 15)
- 2018 – Not Top 10 (DYAR: 20, DVOA: 21, ANY/A: 26, EPA/Play: 23, EPA+CPOE Composite: 27)
- 2019 – 6 (DYAR: 9, DVOA: 4, ANY/A: 5, EPA/Play: 5, EPA+CPOE Composite: 8)
- 2020 – Not Top 10 (DYAR: 14, DVOA: 14, ANY/A: 13, EPA/Play: 17, EPA+CPOE Composite: 22)
During his 11 year playing (minus his injured season) career, Stafford has had 3 seasons where he ranked among the top 10 quarterbacks in the league, with no elite (top 5) seasons.
He has never had back to back top 10 years either, having a minimum 2 season gap between them.
In the 2020 season his average ranking was 16, far from the elite player that fans and media like to make us believe he is.
Jared Goff’s Yearly Positional Ranking:
- 2016 – Not Top 10 (DYAR: 34, DVOA: 34, ANY/A: 31, EPA/Play: 36, EPA+CPOE Composite: 36)
- 2017 – 5 (DYAR: 6, DVOA: 5, ANY/A: 1, EPA/Play: 5, EPA+CPOE Composite: 10)
- 2018 – 7 (DYAR: 6, DVOA: 5, ANY/A: 6, EPA/Play: 9, EPA+CPOE Composite: 9)
- 2019 – Not Top 10 (DYAR: 15, DVOA: 18, ANY/A: 13, EPA/Play: 16, EPA+CPOE Composite: 20)
- 2020 – Not Top 10 (DYAR: 20, DVOA: 22, ANY/A: 21, EPA/Play: 24, EPA+CPOE Composite: 26)
Goff has regressed the past two seasons, but since entering the league in 2016 he has had as many top 10 quarterbacking seasons as Stafford during that stretch, 2, and in 2017 he was an elite player, something Matt has never been able to do.
Supporting Cast
Defense
Matt Stafford’s Yearly Defensive Support Ranking:
Jared Goff’s Yearly Defensive Support Ranking:
It appears as though Goff’s defensive support has been tremendous while Stafford has had horrible defenses for the most part. However if you take Goff’s 5 year defensive cast average ranking and compare it to Stafford’s 5 year support from 2011 to 2015, the numbers are fairly similar.
Goff’s average defense ranking = 10.6
Stafford’s average defense ranking (2011-2015) = 10.8
Special Teams
Matt Stafford’s Yearly Special Teams Support Ranking:
Jared Goff’s Yearly Special Teams Support Ranking:
Inconsistency in this area is typical among most NFL teams, only a few teams are always bad on special teams like the Chargers, or are on average great like the Ravens. Both Goff and Stafford have dealt with this inconsistency.
Rush Offense
Matt Stafford’s Yearly Rush Support Ranking:
Jared Goff’s Yearly Rush Support Ranking:
This is the biggest area of difference in support between the two players, Stafford has never had a good rushing game to accompany the passing attack while Goff has had some elite support in certain seasons.
Receiver Support
Matt Stafford’s Yearly Receiving Yards Leaders (Bold = Selected to Pro Bowl):
- 2009 – Calvin Johnson (984), Bryant Johnson (417), Kevin Smith (415), Dennis Northcutt (357)
- 2010 – Injured
- 2011 – Calvin Johnson (1681), Brandon Pettigrew (777), Nate Burleson (757), Titus Young (607)
- 2012 – Calvin Johnson (1964), Brandon Pettigrew (567), Tony Scheffler (504), Joique Bell (485)
- 2013 – Calvin Johnson (1492), Joique Bell (547), Reggie Bush (506), Kris Durham (490)
- 2014 – Golden Tate (1331), Calvin Johnson (1077), Joique Bell (322), Theo Riddick (316)
- 2015 – Calvin Johnson (1214), Golden Tate (813), Theo Riddick (697), Eric Ebron (537)
- 2016 – Golden Tate (1077), Marvin Jones (930), Eric Ebron (711), Anquan Boldin (584)
- 2017 – Marvin Jones (1101), Golden Tate (1003), Eric Ebron (574), Kenny Golladay (477)
- 2018 – Kenny Golladay (1063), Golden Tate (517), Marvin Jones (508), Theo Riddick (384)
- 2019 – Kenny Golladay (1190), Marvin Jones (779), Danny Amendola (678), TJ Hockenson (367)
- 2020 – Marvin Jones (978), TJ Hockenson (723), Danny Amendola (602), D’Andre Swift (357)
Jared Goff’s Yearly Receiving Yards Leaders (Bold = Selected to Pro Bowl):
- 2016 – Kenny Britt (1002), Brian Quick (564), Tavon Austin (509), Lance Kendricks (499)
- 2017 – Cooper Kupp (869), Todd Gurley (788), Robert Woods (781), Sammy Watkins (593)
- 2018 – Robert Woods (1219), Brandin Cooks (1204), Todd Gurley (580), Cooper Kupp (566)
- 2019 – Cooper Kupp (1161), Robert Woods (1134), Tyler Higbee (734), Brandin Cooks (583)
- 2020 – Cooper Kupp (974), Robert Woods (936), Josh Reynolds (618), Tyler Higbee (521)
Career wise having Calvin Johnson gives Stafford the edge in terms of receiving weapons, but it’s not like Goff has lacked talent despite having none of his wide receivers (or tight ends) going to the Pro Bowl.
Offensive Line Protection
Matt Stafford’s Yearly Offensive Line Support Ranking:
- 2009 – 18 (Pass Blocking = 19)
- 2010 – Injured
- 2011 – 10 (Pass Blocking = 5)
- 2012 – 7 (Pass Blocking = 4)
- 2013 – 8 (Pass Blocking = 5)
- 2014 – 14 (Pass Blocking = 11)
- 2015 – 24 (Pass Blocking = 21)
- 2016 – 19
- 2017 – 19
- 2018 – 16
- 2019 – 11
- 2020 – 13
Jared Goff’s Yearly Offensive Line Support Ranking:
Each player has experienced elite pass protection at some point in their respective careers, there have been some bad years for both, but for the most part each hasn’t had horrible line play for long stretches.
Stafford vs. Goff
Over the past 3 seasons, both of these players have had similar up and down seasons. Goff’s down 2020 looks like Stafford’s 2018 season. Each had a top 10 season that looks the same. Stafford’s average 2020 is basically 2019 Goff.
When you break down their overall support over the years the myth that Stafford has had nothing around him can be put to rest. Has that support been there every year, no, but Matt hasn’t brought consistent top 10 quarterbacking play either. More often than not he has not played like a top 10 quarterback.
If the Rams traded for Stafford believing that he is a huge upgrade over Goff then they are in for a big surprise when he doesn’t play much better than their former quarterback.
Goff might not be consistent enough to be called an elite quarterback but at 26 years old and with a few great seasons under his belt, there is potential for him to still improve.
When all is said and done both teams are going to see they essentially traded for similar production.